Forecasting & Modelling

Research focussed on forecasting the spread or modelling the dynamics of the virus

Published and Preprint Papers

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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.

Assessing mandatory stay-at-home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID-19.

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity - United States, January 26-October 3, 2020.

Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms.

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.

The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries.