Forecasting & Modelling

Research focussed on forecasting the spread or modelling the dynamics of the virus

Published and Preprint Papers

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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period.

Assessing mandatory stay-at-home and business closure effects on the spread of COVID-19.

Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.

Global minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19-associated orphanhood and deaths of caregivers: a modelling study.

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms.

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity - United States, January 26-October 3, 2020.

Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection trends in South Africa: analysis of routine surveillance data