Forecasting & Modelling

Research focussed on forecasting the spread or modelling the dynamics of the virus

Published and Preprint Papers

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Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity - United States, January 26-October 3, 2020.

The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application.

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

The temporal association of introducing and lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions with the time-varying reproduction number (R) of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study across 131 countries

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening.

A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with 'lock-down' in managing the COVID-19 pandemic.

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks.

Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.

Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis.